With Kentucky Derby 125 approximately three weeks away, the time has presented itself to analyze the major contenders for this year's renewal of the Run for the Roses. The Derby field is typically large, with several evenly matched contenders. This scenario, of course, lends itself to making substantial profits from a minimal investment through the windows. In fact, the average winning mutuel payoff since 1991 in the Kentucky Derby is $23.60. In sum, overlays, or horses with higher odds, are rife in the Derby. The key, as in any handicapping exercise, is to find the overlays with the best possible chance of winning, or finishing in the money. This column will attempt to do just that.

I have been keen on Lemon Drop Kid since his half-length score in last year's storied Futurity Stakes at Belmont Park. The son of the brilliant European miler Kingmambo, out of the stamina-oriented mare Charming Lassie, has impeccable action, or an effortless, fluid stride. The colt is in the capable hands of Hall of Fame trainer Scotty Schulhofer as well. The knocks on Lemon Drop Kid are that he has never won around two turns and, at press time, had made only one start thus far in 1999 in which he won an allowance race at Gulfstream Park. The bay colt is scheduled to make his final start before the Kentucky Derby in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 10.

The 1999 installment of the Blue Grass is shaping up to be a continuous heat with the likes of Vicar, Wondertross, Cat Thief and Menifee expected to go postward. Lemon Drop Kid may not win the Blue Grass, but he figures to give a good account of himself against a top class field going nine furlongs. One can excuse Lemon Drop Kid's lone defeat around two turns, as he stumbled at the start in last year's Breeder's Cup Juvenile, yet still managed to finish fifth of 13, beaten six and one-half lengths. At projected double-digit odds, a fresh Lemon Drop Kid figures as an overlay with a big shot on the first Saturday in May.

On the East Coast, Vicar has stood out as the top performer in South Florida this winter by virtue of his wins in the Florida Derby and the Fountain of Youth Stakes. The son of Wild Again has the pedigree to stay the classic mile and a quarter distance and is trained by Carl Nafzger, who saddled 1990 Kentucky Derby winner Unbridled. Vicar has a lot of heart and a strong will to win, extremely favorable, albeit innate, characteristics of a racehorse.

Cat Thief, a son of Storm Cat owned by Overbrook Farm and trained by the venerable D. Wayne Lukas, is another who is bred to go a mile and a quarter, yet he hasn't posted a victory since winning the Breeder's Futurity at Keeneland last fall. He has been behind Vicar in his last two starts, though he has run well in those heats. The Blue Grass will tell more about his chances, but given his connections, he has the potential to be an underlay Derby day.

Trainer Nick Zito loves Kentucky, and he generally has a charge prepared to put forth his best effort in the Churchill classic. Zito has won two Derbies in the 1990s, with Strike the Gold (1991) and Go For Gin (1994). This year, Zito has a pair of colts who appear to be viable Derby contenders. The diminutively-built Wondertross was a game second to Vicar in the Florida Derby, and the A.P. Indy colt Stephen Got Even scored a dominant victory in the Gallery Furniture.com Stakes at Turfway in 1:49 flat over a field that included the highly-touted Straight Man, as well as local hero K. One King.

Other strong Midwest-based candidates are Menifee and Answer Lively.

Menifee suffered his first defeat for trainer Elliott Walden in the Tampa Bay Derby, his first effort around two turns, against a sketchy field. Menifee has been well-regarded since his threelength win over Cat Thief and Lemon Drop Kid in a key allowance race last summer at Saratoga. Though he is by the crack sprinter Harlan, Menifee is a half-brother to Desert Wine, who was second in the 1983 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.

Answer Lively, last year's two-year-old Eclipse champion, has yet to post a victory this year while being based in New Orleans for trainer Bobby Barnett. A son of Lively One, Answer Lively was a game second in the Louisiana Derby while running between horses, and he already has a victory over the Churchill Downs strip, where he won last year's Breeder's Cup Juvenile.

On the West Coast, BobBaffert trainee Prime Timber was impressive winning his most recent start, the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita, over stablemate Exploit. Baffert has won the last two runnings of the Derby with Real Quiet and Silver Charm respectively, and the former quarter horse trainer was a nose shy of winning Derby 122 with Cavonnier. Baffert’s squad has been somewhat depleted with the loss of Exploit to injury and the poor showing of the highly-touted Exploit in the Gallery Furniture.com stakes. Prime Timber, by the stayer Sultry Song, is Baffert's top gun for Derby 125. The colt rolled from off the pace in the San Felipe after being equipped with blinkers for the first time. He is scheduled to make his next start in the Santa Anita Derby on April 10. The knock on him, from a handicapping point of view, figures to be his lowish odds, especially should he win the Santa Anita Derby. Baffert also conditions General Challenge, who disappointed as the favorite in the Louisiana Derby.

Another top Derby candidate whose final prep will be in the Santa Anita Derby is Desert Hero, a son of 1993 Kentucky Derby winner Sea Hero. Desert Hero has turned in the most impressive Derby prep to date, when he bested a crackerjack field in the San Rafael Stakes, which included Prime Timber and the well-regarded filly Honest Lady. Desert Hero was hopelessly beaten behind a wall of horses only a few jumps from the wire, but swung out late and just caught Prime Timber on the line. The win was even more impressive considering this was his stakes debut and first start around two turns.

1999 has an exceptional crop of three-year-old fillies as well, one of which has committed to run in the 125th Run for the Roses. Three Ring has toyed with her opponents in her two most recent starts, both of which with the addition of blinkers, and will try the boys for the first time in Louisville. The last filly to win the Derby was Winning Colors in 1988.

Bob Baffert has a pair of hickory fillies in his arsenal as well, Silverbulletday and Excellent Meeting. Baffert, however, is content on keeping his female charges with horses of their own sex in their next starts. At press time, Baffert gave no indication of running either filly in the Derby, though it is this writer's opinion that if either charge runs it will be Excellent Meeting.

Another filly with tremendous potential is Juddmonte Farm's Honest Lady. The impeccably bred (Seattle Slew-Toussaud) filly was a close fifth in the San Rafael, her first start against colts. She will hook the boys again in the Santa Anita Derby for trainer Bobby Frankel.

The final players to be analyzed for Derby 125 are the Team Godolphin trio of Worldly Manner, Aljabr and Comeonmom. All three horses are owned by Sheikhs Maktoum, Hamdan and Mohammad al-Maktoum and are trained by Saeed bin Suroor. None of the colts will start in a formal prep race for the Derby, and all have made their winter preparations in the United Arab Emirates.

In what was called a "trial" on March 20 at the Nad al-Sheba Racecourse in Dubai, Worldly Manner bested stablemate Aljabr by a length and a half, covering the mile and an eighth distance in the exceptional -to-unbelievable time of 1:46 2/5.

Eoin Harty, an assistant to trainer Bob Baffert and the assistant trainer of Worldly Manner last year for former owners Betty and John Mabee, was so impressed with Worldly Manner's effort that he told Daily Racing Form, "Based on what I saw Sunday, I can pretty much guarantee he'll be in the first three in the Derby."

Final preps for Derby 125 will take place April 10 -- the Blue Grass at Keeneland, the Santa Anita Derby the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn and the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. At this juncture I am inclined to play Lemon Drop Kid across the board in Derby 125. Additionally, I will try to hook him up in some exactas and trifectas (exotics always pay well in the Derby) with Menifee, Prime Timber and perhaps, Honest Lady.

John Gaver is editorial director of The Lane Report.