Where Have the Numbers Gone?
In a world that has been relatively cavalier about handing out numbers, there are now indications that the digits are thinning out

There is a running skirmish between constituencies in the counting business: who's counting correctly, what boundaries are being observed, which perks correspond to which pre-determined levels.

Today, several signs point to a literal numbers crunch, a squeeze that doesn't just affect the high-level, high-speed computational wizards, but every person trying to make a simple phone call. In a world that has been relatively cavalier about handing out numbers, there are indications that the digits are thinning out.

Codes, areas and exponential growth

The Kentucky Public Service Commission (PSC) thought things were perfectly clear when they decided in August to overlay the new 270 area code in the 502 area. Subsequent reaction at four public hearings in Bowling Green, Louisville, Owensboro and Paducah convinced the PSC to reverse direction in November and go with a geographic split. Now, Louisville, Georgetown, Frankfort and points north will retain 502, while the telephone exchanges of North Garrett, Radcliffe, Elizabethtown, Hodgenville, Buffalo, Lebanon and Loretto will form the northern boundary of the 270 area code region.

Several factors combined to force the reversal, among them the concurrent need for relief in the 606 region, where slower growth rates would dictate a non-overlay approach. "The Commission believes that the entire state of Kentucky should utilize the same dialing pattern to reduce confusion," read the November Order.

Also, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has recently decided to delay implementation of location number portability for an indefinite period of time. That's different from local number portability, you see. So much for avoiding confusion.

"The FCC has already directed local number portability," explains Kentucky PSC Communications Engineer Wayne Bates. "You can port your number to a different carrier and keep it the same. Location number portability is moving from Lexington to Louisville and keeping your number, or even Louisville to Los Angeles. If your carrier serves that new area, you can keep the number, although it requires 10-digit dialing. The FCC has now deferred that indefinitely, but at the time of our original overlay decision, they were moving forward."

If the whole country were going to be phased into 10-digit dialing down the road, reasoned the PSC, why go through the misery of a split and then have to go to 10-digit later? Other areas of the country have suffered through just such misery, most notoriously in the Boston area, where splits have followed on the heels of other splits that were supposed to last longer than they did.

Beyond zeroes and ones

Because of a dearth of area codes, the series of digits necessary to dial is growing toward infinity. In some unfortunate districts, just calling your neighbor requires pressing 10 digits, and the battle between overlays of new area codes (assigning them only to newly-created phone numbers) versus geographically splitting off a new area code is reaching epic proportions.

In California, the state's 13 area codes are expected to double by 2001. The maximum number of phone lines available under a single area code is 7.9 million. These days, the average lifespan of an area code is four to seven years. So all those numbers aren't necessarily people talking. In 1996, "Pac Bell had more minutes on our network used by computers as opposed to people," said David Dickstein, spokesman for Pacific Bell. "More than 50 percent of our usage was not human-to-human, but computer-to-computer."

The problem is not limited to the United States. In Great Britain, for example, all area codes got a fourth digit in 1995. France has expanded from two area zones to five, and Germany is also assigning longer telephone numbers.

So it's actually the computational devices using up those numbers so fast. That doesn't even count pagers and fax machines. At the current pace, the available pool of three-digit area codes will be exhausted in about 30 years.

Overlay. It sounds so simple and clean. But as residents of historic overlay zones can tell you, the process is rarely gentle and comforting, and every region's situation is unique.

"Aside from using up numbers, really what we're talking about is the depletion of prefixes," says the PSC's Bates. "That's 10,000 numbers with each prefix. We're also depleting area codes -- you have three digits, and 800 area codes for North America. We may well be out by 2008. What do you do? Four-digit area code? At one time, I thought we'd be forced into it. I believe it can be deferred longer now -- if you can issue less numbers at a time."

"The existing assignment system is in blocks of 10,000," adds Kentucky PSCExecutive Director Helen Helton (who is unrelated to PSC Chairperson B.J. Helton). "That numbering system evolved in a non-competitive system. The 1996 Telecommunications Act changed that environment, as did ATMs and pagers and cell phones. Pending before the FCC is a proposal to issue numbers in blocks of 1,000. Technology allows that now, and the Kentucky PSC supports that motion. We expect to hear shortly."

These days, area codes no longer follow the old rule of always having a 0 or 1 in the middle. But at least Kentucky's new code has a 0 on the end. How do these numbers get chosen anyway?

"We can only be assigned a number after we've made a decision to order a split, overlay, or boundary realignment," says Bates. "If you know like we do that there's going to be relief needed in another code, there's no reason to realign.

The paradox of geography

Just as our time zone boundaries were defined over 100 years ago, area code borders are determined by a combination of geography, historical usage and the needs of business. And just as battles continue over time's lines (the western border of the central time zone in Kansas has crept steadily westward over the past 50 years), so will the tough decisions continue to queue up as the need for new numbers arises across the country.

The new area code boundary in Kentucky does not follow political boundaries such as counties, but rather telephone network boundaries that are determined by telephone company facilities. It is not technically possible to split these facilities, called central offices.

"The availability of 10,000 numbers in a block is merely a mathematical fact," explains Bates. "Our first area code (502) came in 1947. In 1955, we got 606. In the early '60s, direct dialing brought about the need for seven digits."

What may surprise some people, in an age of airborne communications, is the enduring role of physical terrain in determining service boundaries and capabilities.

"It's like running a fence row and attaching it to the next fence row," Helton points out. "You have to look at the physical plant of these companies. These were built as needed."

"The oldest information I could find indicated there were 121 telephone companies in the state in 1947," says Bates with a smile. "Southern Bell was the big company during that time. There were cooperatives in the '30s and '40s. They started in the metro areas and moved out. You had "such-and-such Farmers" telephone companies, developed on an as-needed basis, when the lines came to a creek or a hill."

Now the drive for convenience that led to seven digits in the '60s may be driving us inevitably toward 10 digits in the next century, the current geographic splits notwithstanding.

"Many of the largest areas have split and split and then gone to overlay eventually," reports Bates. "Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas. L.A. has 11 codes now. Arizona, Pennsylvania and Kentucky have reversed plans, as have Florida and Tennessee. Eventually, because of location number portability or number exhaustion, I speculate that we'll have 10 digits anyway. As 606 becomes used in New York or Los Angeles, it won't have the meaning we've associated with it traditionally. It's somewhat true right now with a wireless company: you go to another state and you're operating with the same number."

Listening to the public

When the public hearing concerning the overlay decision occurred in Louisville, the Louisville Chamber of Commerce's Doug Cobb said 90 percent of the membership favored a new area code, as long as they could preserve seven-digit dialing. Many business representatives noted resource limitations and the difficulty of implementing system modifications needed for 10-digit local dialing.

Since the decision to go with the split, others have predictably been disgruntled, presumably because of the costs of changing stationery and advertising.

The current timeline calls for a permissive dialing period to begin no later than May 1. The new code will become mandatory no earlier than November 1. As for 606, a public hearing process will begin later this spring, with hearings to occur in multiple locations scattered throughout the area.

Waiting on action until the hearing process is one thing the Kentucky PSC staff has learned from last year's unprecedented public reaction.

"The PSC has not been in a position to proactively educate before," says Education Specialist Amanda Hale. "The area code issue was a learning experience for us. It hit suddenly. We made formal decision without much consumer reaction. Then we learned more. Now we're trying to get out in front of issues, to learn about utility issues before big explosions."

Initiatives include a proposed curriculum for children, under development with the UK College of Education, bill inserts, a speaker's pool, and more frequent public service announcements.

Adam Bruns is a staff writer for The Lane Report.

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