1998 Business Outlook
Predictions: The good, the bad and the ugly

Several readers and clients have, on an informal basis, asked "What do you expect this year?" Because of the frequency of the inquiries, I decided to comment on five key areas that I believe will affect Kentuckians in 1998. Here goes:

The Good

THE ECONOMY – U.S. business conditions look favorable this year; and business throughout Kentucky should exceed the national average. The greater Louisville, Bowling Green, Northern and Central Kentucky markets should beat the eastern and western trade areas of the state. 1998 will be a good year for business all over Kentucky.

THE GOVERNOR – Paul Patton will keep moving to a more centric and conservative political philosophy and strengthen his already strong position with Kentucky voters.

In politics, it pays to be a leader, to set agendas, and to take bold initiatives. And the Governor's ability to dole out budget surpluses to communities around the state won't hurt either. The way things are going, the Republican party will have a tough time mounting an effective governor's race in two years. 1998 will be another good year for Governor Patton.

The Bad

POLITICS – The political environment this year will be lousy. The Kentucky General Assembly opens its session on January 6th; the filing deadline for candidates is January 27th. The primary is in May. Politicians will make every effort to keep from voting on bills that offend voters and create opportunities for their opponents. In other words, you can be sure of a lackluster performance by our elected leaders. Look for Republicans to capture the Kentucky Senate, gain in the Kentucky House, and to run strong races for the U.S. Senate and 6th district congressional seats now held by Democrats. 1998 will be a bad year if you expect much in the way of leadership from our legislators.

The Ugly

FAYETTE COUNTY – The mayor's race could be a cantankerous affair as important issues are addressed by the candidates (higher taxes, airport expansion, traffic planning, zoning, urban service boundaries, privatization, topless dancers, long term planning, leadership issues). A positive note: discussing the issues could help Lexingtonians set an agenda for the future.

HEALTHCARE REFORMS – Existing problems will be difficult to solve. Add re-election year jitters by our elected representatives, rate increases by healthcare insurers, and the attorney general's litigation to an already unhealthy situation – the outcome will require intensive care. Ugly may be a gracious term to describe health care reform in 1998.

Recommendations

Under these circumstances, perhaps the best plan for 1998 would be to concentrate on running your business and lobbying the governor's office for some of the budget surplus. As for politics, I would remain aloof and vote only for the candidate who espouses a political philosophy to which you can relate. And finally, stay healthy in 1998.

Ed G. Lane is chief executive of Lane Consultants, Inc. and publisher of The Lane Report.

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