The Road to 2000
Tracking progress in the quest to avoid technological disaster

In this column, the final in a series of three on the Year 2000 (Y2K) problem, the focus shifts from the private sector to the public sector. Just as a refresher: computer programmers and integrated chip manufacturers have for many years programmed the year component of dates with only two digits, rather than four. This space saving device will result in unpredictable failures and/or compromised data in numerous software programs and computer systems (not to mention various chip-driven devices) on the first day of 2000, unless steps are taken to fix or replace non-compliant components.

A recent report submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission by Triaxsys Research asserts that of the 250 largest corporations in the United States, fewer than 60 percent have completed even preliminary assessments to determine the scope of the problems they face. The report concludes that their progress "falls considerably below levels necessary to avoid business disruption." If you find that notion unsettling, consider for a moment the fact that, poor as it is, the private sector is doing considerably better than the public sector in getting ready for the new millennium.

On the federal level, the U.S. General Accounting Office reports that only about 35 percent of all mission-critical computer systems have been checked and fixed. That leaves a mere 3,500 systems to go, and those are just the ones that are considered absolutely critical to a particular agency's mission. The problem is further exacerbated by the fact that the various agencies are having a hard time identifying which systems are indeed mission-critical. Seemingly minor systems may be discovered to be extremely critical if it turns out that major systems won't run without them, but for many of these systems, there will be no way to tell until they actually fail.

You should also keep in mind that that each of the aforementioned 3,500 systems are major systems, and are thus composed of many smaller systems and programs. The Internal Revenue Service, for example, boasts a total of 88,000 separate computer programs. Of these, 13,000 have been retired, 40,000 have been fixed, and there are 35,000 remaining to be fixed. On the hardware side, the IBS has replaced a large number of its mainframe computers, but still has not developed a plan for about 1,000 mid-size computers and the agency's 130,000 desktop machines. But if you think that's bad, consider that refund checks come from the U.S. Treasury, where none of the mission-critical systems have been fixed yet.

Here in Kentucky, the picture is a little murky. Kentucky Chief Information Officer Aldona K. Valicenti says that Kentucky is as far along the road to compliance as any other state, while State Auditor Ed Hatchett, in a report that his office prepared for the governor, paints a rather bleak portrait of state government preparedness due, in part, to a lack of effective support from the state Department of Information Systems. At this writing, more than half of the state's primary computer systems have been audited and corrected, which, as Valicenti says, is probably as good as any other state is doing.

One thing for which the state deserves credit is the creation of a website (http://www.state.ky.us/year2000/resource/index.htm) with some really valuable information, especially for the small to medium-sized business with no budget for consultants. There one can find, in an easy to use format, summaries of compliance and links to official industry websites for scores of software and hardware products that are common to business and government.

For the mother of all Y2K websites, check out http://www.year2000.com/ – there's even a downloadable shareware program that you can use to audit your own PC.

John F. Clark is the College Technology Coordinator for the University of Kentucky College of Communications and Information Studies

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